As part of CF MED’s dissemination and communication activities, we are pleased to share the newly published peer‑reviewed research article in Frontiers in Soil Science: Modeling carbon sequestration in Mediterranean agroecosystems using the CAST model. This work is a joint effort by partners from the Technical University of Crete, BETA Tech Centre, and Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, reflecting our shared commitment to advancing robust, science‑based pathways for carbon farming across Mediterranean landscapes.
Understanding Soil Carbon Sequestration in Mediterranean
The study evaluates soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in Mediterranean agroecosystems using the Carbon, Aggregation, and Structure Turnover (CAST) model, with a particular focus on agroecological and regenerative practices that support carbon farming (CF) strategies. To ground model outputs in real‑world systems, the authors analyse three case studies across the Mediterranean region (Greece, Italy, and Spain) quantifying SOC dynamics and the potential for long‑term carbon storage under different land uses and management choices.
Key findings include:
- Koiliaris, Greece (avocado orchards): Under practices such as manure addition, mulching, and sustainable irrigation, the study reports SOC sequestration of 3.81–4.71 tC/ha/yr (2019–2024), with projections indicating a decline to 1.15–1.50 tC/ha/yr by 2044 as SOC approaches saturation.
- Lazio, Italy (regenerative olive groves): The system shows accumulation of 1.17 tC/ha/yr (2011–2025), with a modest projected decrease to 1.09 tC/ha/yr by 2045, suggesting long‑term SOC stability.
- Sant Pau de Segúries, Spain (agroforestry and pastures): Agroforestry systems gain 0.94 tC/ha/yr (2019–2024) with projected increases to 1.09 tC/ha/yr by 2044, while pastures show SOC losses (−0.71 tC/ha/yr) linked to forest‑to‑grassland conversion in the assessed scenario.
Beyond overall SOC trends, the paper highlights that SOC accumulation is predominantly associated with macro‑aggregates (>250 μm), which are linked to soil structural stability and resilience as a crucial dimension when considering both climate mitigation and adaptation outcomes.
Finally, the research underscores the model’s performance in simulating SOC turnover and aggregate fractions, noting low uncertainty related to carbon input in the simulation, and positioning CAST as a valuable tool for Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) within carbon farming schemes.
Enabling Credible Carbon Farming through Robust Modelling
Carbon farming depends not only on good practice in the field, but also on credible ways to quantify outcomes over time. The study demonstrates how modelling can support evidence‑based decision‑making in Mediterranean contexts where soils, climate constraints, and management variability can make carbon outcomes harder to predict and compare across regions.
By combining case‑study data with CAST’s representation of carbon dynamics and soil aggregation, the paper contributes to a clearer understanding of:
- Which regenerative and agroecological practices are associated with measurable SOC gains in different Mediterranean systems;
- How sequestration rates may evolve over time, including the concept of saturation effects in some systems;
- How robust modelling can strengthen MRV readiness, which is increasingly central to trustworthy carbon farming approaches and to the broader credibility of climate‑smart land management initiatives.
The study supports CF MED’s mission by providing a transparent, science‑based perspective on SOC sequestration pathways in Mediterranean agroecosystems—and by demonstrating how modelling can complement field knowledge to enable more reliable planning, evaluation and reporting.
Read the full paper
Access the open‑access article here:
Modeling carbon sequestration in Mediterranean agroecosystems using the CAST model
